“Now is the time to look ahead, at the future of taxation, for a competitive and fairer Europe”. This statement from Pierre Moscovici, the EU’s top taxation official, comes after a succession of tax evasions...
“Now is the time to look ahead, at the future of taxation, for a competitive and fairer Europe”.
This statement from Pierre Moscovici, the EU’s top taxation official, comes after a succession of tax evasions scandals in recent years which have pushed the European Commission to adopt a strong position on the issue and focus its efforts on improving tax legislation and hunting down alleged tax-dodging companies and tax havens.
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The situation in Catalonia is complex. For more than three decades the Regional Government of Catalonia (with a strong ruling and executive autonomy according to the Spanish Constitution) is trying to obtain further fiscal benefits...
The situation in Catalonia is complex. For more than three decades the Regional Government of Catalonia (with a strong ruling and executive autonomy according to the Spanish Constitution) is trying to obtain further fiscal benefits from the Central Government. Negotiations on this front have had little success and for that and for other historical demands over the last few years the Catalan government (Generalitat) has boosted its positioning claiming for an independence from Spain. To do so over the last couple of years the Catalan government has undertaken a campaign aiming at celebrating a referendum for Catalonia to decide its independence on October 1st.
This process is illegal as it does not respect the Spanish Constitution requirements nor the Catalan government’s current legislation. This situation has led to a strong mobilization by the Catalan government and a segment of Catalan citizens, students and supporters of independentists parties. From a civil society perspective this process is being opposed by the business community, most of the media, academia and intellectuals. The latter are mostly on the left ideology spectrum but strongly oppose the lack of democracy and respect of the law from the Catalan government in managing this so-called independence process.
From a legal perspective, though the Catalan government is keeping on saying publicly that the referendum will take place on October 1st, it will have no legal value at all in case it happens. We can expect ongoing street demonstrations in the next few days which will be echoed by the national and international media. The only way forward is that both, central and Catalan governments, engage in a political dialogue to set up the basis for a legal revision of Catalonia membership to Spain according to the Constitution and the full respect of the civil rights of all Catalonia citizens including the ones not in favour the independence process.
Another important part of the civil society supports ‘the right to decide’ and stands up for an open dialogue and the possibility of negotiating a future referendum with guarantees within the legal framework.
Despite measures being taken by the Spanish justice system and the authorities to prevent a planned illegal referendum on Catalan independence from taking place on Sunday, the regional premier, Carles Puigdemont, was determined on Thursday night that the poll would go ahead.
Summaries of the recent events and some decoders to understand this awkward political situation have been prepared by Edelman Spain
Germany has voted yesterday. The government of CDU/CSU and SPD – the Grand Coalition – suffered significant losses. The Social Democrats have already announced that they will no longer continue with the coalition. Thus, Angela...
Germany has voted yesterday. The government of CDU/CSU and SPD – the Grand Coalition – suffered significant losses. The Social Democrats have already announced that they will no longer continue with the coalition. Thus, Angela Merkel has a chance to form a new coalition with the FDP and The Greens. At the same time, the AfD (Alternative for Germany), a right-wing populist and nationalist party, have entered parliament as the third strongest party – and will change the political climate in Germany.
An overview of the current developments and initial assessments has been prepared by Edelman.ergo
This past weekend, an assembly election for Tokyo’s Metropolitan Government resulted in a sweeping victory for populist Governor Yuriko Koike’s Tomin First no Kai, or “Tokyo Citizens First” Party. Most notably, it saw Prime Minister...
This past weekend, an assembly election for Tokyo’s Metropolitan Government resulted in a sweeping victory for populist Governor Yuriko Koike’s Tomin First no Kai, or “Tokyo Citizens First” Party. Most notably, it saw Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the nation’s long-standing ruling party, receive a record low of only 23 out of 127 assembly seats—down from its current 57 seats. This is a direct reflection of the recent nose dive in popularity experienced by Prime Minister Abe and the LDP following a string of scandals and criticisms in recent months.
The city election is widely considered a precursor to the national election. Until recently, Prime Minister Abe—who is currently Japan’s third-longest serving premier since World War II—has been expected to be re-elected by the LDP for a third term next year, which would make him the longest-serving Prime Minister in history. In fact, a Prime Minister is currently allowed only two terms with the LDP, but, due to Abe’s high popularity, the LDP has been planning to adjust the rules to permit a candidate to run for a third term. This would allow him to carry out his agenda and retain the legacy of serving during the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. However, this sudden revelation signals the possibility that he could be replaced by the national elections in December 2018.
A former LDP member, Governor Koike is the first female leader of the nation’s capital. She angered senior LDP members when she ran for Tokyo governor last year and, again, when she defected from the party last month to form Tomin First no Kai, citing the LDP as an anti-reform “old boys’ club.” She campaigned on a reformist agenda focused on open government and cost-cutting. Now at 64, she was formerly a TV newscaster before serving as Minister of Environment and Minister of Defense. Several speculate that she will eventually return to parliament to run for Prime Minister. Considering her strong track record in government, her high approval ratings, recognition for being media-savvy, and fluency in English and Arabic, she is well-positioned for the role.
People in Japan have generally been apathetic toward politics, but a recent wave of energy and attention is coming to the surface. With a background as a newscaster and one of the first prominent female political personalities in Japan, Koike has attracted audiences previously uninterested in politics. In fact, this election had an 8% increase in voter turnout from the previous poll four years ago—up from 43% to 51%, which is higher than usual for Japanese voters. This is due to both her popularity, as well as the recent public incidents faced by Prime Minister Abe and his party. For example, a highly uncommon occurrence, this weekend brought protestors to rally at a public speech by the Prime Minister; LDP members were later disparaged for trying to cover their signs and criticizing them for their interference.
However, this swing in public favor is not a complete surprise. Over the past 12 months, Prime Minister Abe and the LDP, which has been the ruling political party in Japan for all but four years since 1955, has received significant criticism for ramming through several pieces of controversial legislation which lacked public support. Among these include an “anti-conspiracy law” which allows arrests to be made before a criminal act, another law which allows Japan to exercise its right to collective self-defense, and the legalization of casino gambling in Japan. Abe has also been aggressively pushing to revise the national Constitution which has gone untouched since the end of the war. In addition to all of this, the Prime Minister has become entangled in allegations of favoritism and rumors of corruption.
At the same time, a heightened interest in the Tokyo Governor has developed due to heated debate about the relocation of The Tsukiji Market, Tokyo’s famous international fish market, and government spending for the 2020 Olympics. Additionally, three Tokyo governors preceding Koike stepped down because of public scandals. It has also become clear there is a groundswell of frustration with the old, traditional system and a desire for reform—a societal momentum which Governor Koike leveraged successfully. Not only has she emerged as the only politician who poses a real threat to the dominance of the LDP, but the prominence of her role as the Tokyo Governor will be stronger over the next few years than previously expected.
We can expect an equal level of attention to be given to the national election next year. Additionally, we can expect a flood of new LDP candidates shooting to replace Prime Minister Abe and primed to compete against a possible Koike run in a few years’ time. In the near term, although it is obvious all discussion about Constitutional reform will be muted, we don’t expect much to change in terms of the existing legislative calendar.
Interestingly, the scenario playing out now is a realization of the findings in Edelman’s 2017 Trust Barometer released earlier this year, which indicated a possible movement in Japan toward populism as seen in other parts of the globe. In the survey, Japan was ranked “below global average” for their faith in the system—only 13% of respondents in Japan said they believe the system is working—and 53% expressed concern for widespread corruption. Most notably, nearly 3/4 of respondents in Japan found the “Reformer” more believable than the “Preserver of the Status Quo”. Although it’s unlikely Governor Koike, the reformer, will scale her “Tokyo First” platform to a national level, its clear that Japan’s political environment is heading for change.
Written by the Edelman Japan Public Affairs team
President Macron will benefit from a stable majority in the French National Assembly. Our colleagues in Paris have prepared a snapshot of the French Parliamentary Elections' result. Download the briefing here
President Macron will benefit from a stable majority in the French National Assembly. Our colleagues in Paris have prepared a snapshot of the French Parliamentary Elections’ result.
French President-elect Emmanuel Macron has a major task ahead of him: his presidency will test whether a centrist, pro-European leader can govern France and whether an inexperienced politician can do better than the “traditional” political...
French President-elect Emmanuel Macron has a major task ahead of him: his presidency will test whether a centrist, pro-European leader can govern France and whether an inexperienced politician can do better than the “traditional” political classes. His pro-European mindset will face a strong Euro-skepticism and reluctance to globalization strongly anchored in French culture. Some of Macron’s proposals seek to further liberalize the French economy, reduce public deficit, more flexible labor market regulations and refresh the political domain by introducing new rules and more transparency.
Business under Macron will not be “as usual”.
From a geopolitical perspective, Macron will preserve France’s alliance with Germany to maintain the Euro, political stability and peace in Europe. France will likely try to impose a “political” management of the Eurozone with Germany by creating a Euro governance, benefiting from the German political agenda (general elections in September). Paris and Berlin will likely pressure the UK through isolation and defending the indivisibility of the European Union. Macron will maintain the Atlantic Alliance as a pivot of the French foreign policy to prevent President Vladmir Putin from further gaining influence in Europe.
Our colleagues in Paris have prepared a note on how Emmanuel Macron’s presidency is likely to impact not only French politics but also business. The analysis sets out President Macron’s personality, policies, agenda and main challenges.
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